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On September 19, a protocol was signed in Minsk between the Kiev Government and the Resistance, which marks the end of the fighting.
The terms of the agreement are:
- End of the fighting
- No more offensive military action.
- No overflight above safety zones including Resistance controlled territory.
- Monitoring of the ceasefire by the OCSE.
- Creation of a 30km area buffer zone in which heavy artillery deployment is prohibited.
- Withdrawal of mercenaries.
The Resistance
The new protocol is a victory for the resistance. It means the Ukrainian government cannot defeat it militarily. It also means the Ukrainian government now recognise it as a negotiating partner. In summary:
- The Government launched a military operation (the so called "anti terrorist operation") to quell an uprising and arrest those it labelled terrorists It has not achieved either objective. The "anti terrorist operation" has failed.
- The conflict has now moved from a military to a political phase between two well-defined and mutually recognising legal entities: the Ukrainian Government and the political entity formed by the Resistance called Novorossiya.
- The fighting has ended with the Resistance in control of most of the territory it controlled at the beginning of the fighting in May.
- The Government has been forced to propose a "special status" for the regions that have rebelled contrary to what it stated when the conflict began.
- The Resistance has the political option of rejecting any deal that does not grant full independence from Kiev.
The Resistance in Donetsk
The Resistance won the war for essentially the following reasons:
Resistance
- High Motivation: The Resistance fought to defend its own territory and people.
- Its ability to recruit increasing numbers of highly motivated volunteers throughout the fighting.
- The superior knowledge of the territory it was defending.
- The moral and operational unity of its fighters.
- Its effective use of small unit sabotage tactics that enabled it to inflict losses demoralising and weakening its adversary.
- The support of the local population, in all the territories in which there was fighting.
- The support of the Russian Federation especially in dealing with the humanitarian crisis caused by the fighting and in offering safe havens along the border.
- Its effective air defence, which denied the Government air force unrestricted access to the battlefield.
- The strategic retreat from Slaviansk accomplished by Strelkov and his men, that slowly began to turn the tide of the conflict.
Ukraine Army
- Low Motivation. Many soldiers were forced into the army through repeated mobilisations and did not feel committed to the struggle.
- The lack of effective strategies to conquer and occupy continuously captured territory.
- )Poor training and knowledge in the use of available weapons.
- Internal conflicts within the Ukraine army and between the Army and the National Guard and the paramilitary battalions answerable to various oligarchs.
- High losses of men and material caused by poor tactics causing demoralisation amongst the soldiers.
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MORE: Ukraine
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