This post first appeared on Russia Insider
The war in the Ukraine is turning into a stalemate. The Ukrainian army is ill-suited to the kind of guerilla war the resistance is fighting, and is sustaining huge losses relative to the resistance.
There is little hope that the Ukrainian army can successfully take control of either of the two main cities in question, Donetsk or Lugansk, because this would bog them down in bloody urban house-to-house fighting, with huge losses for Kiev that neither Ukrainian nor European public opinion would support, not to speak of horrific civilan casualties.
Outside the cities Kiev's armies are unable to secure any area for a long, despite a huge numerical and equipment advantage. A resistance tactic is to melt away into countryside, thereby giving the appearance of a Kiev success, and then pop up somewhere else and inflict huge losses in men and equipment.
Poorly equipped, with low morale, and anything but nimble, Kiev's armies are suffering death by a thousand cuts at the hands of the resistance.
Therefore it is no surprise that President Poroshenko is now signalling that he will negotiate. Starting the war to stop the separatists was a big gamble, and many observers at the time pointed out that it was unlikely to succeed.
It seems quite clear now that Poroshenko went ahead with it out of political weakness vis a vis his fascist coalition in Kiev, and under pressure from his American advisors, eager to try to isolate Russia diplomatically.
Not suprisingly, the gamble hasn't succeeded, because now the separatists, who are demanding a degree of autonomy within a united Ukraine, have even greater support from their shell-shocked countrymen.
Furthermore, Poroshenko can't prosecute the war much longer because Kiev is broke, and popular discontent is growing in reaction to the lack of results and high casualties. He will now have to concede more than what he would have before starting the war.
More and more negative reports are appearing in the European and American mainstream press about civilain massacres by the Kiev armies, the rise of fascist extremists, and military losses.
This indicates that governments in the EU are realizing that they have to go back to the negotiating table, which explains why negotiations have begun again in Minsk.
This post first appeared on Russia Insider
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