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This post first appeared on Russia Insider
The September 5th 2014 cease-fire appears to be holding with such breaches as have taken place being mainly the work of right wing paramilitary fighting alongside the Ukrainian army. The truce will will probably hold for 1 to 2 weeks. However it is unlikely to last longer.
The reasons are:
- The opposition to compromise by the hardliners in the Ukrainian establishment (Kolomoisky, other oligarchs and right wing groups and paramilitaries such as Right Sector).
- The Ukrainian establishment's need to divert attention away from the escalating economic crisis (including the pending cut off of Russian gas) as winter approaches.
- The elections in October, which could provoke further divisions and lead to further radicalization. .
- The rebels' desire to gain control of all territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions including Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Mariupol and possibly to extend their control to Odessa and Kharkov which they see as essential to for a viable Novorossiya
- Disagreement about the future political status of Donetsk and Lugansk with the rebels pressing for full independence
- Failure by either side to release POWs as agreed.
For the mean time, we can say that the main reasons that have pushed the parties to agree a cease fire can be summed up as follows:
The Ukrainian government
- Avoid further military defeats
- Replace losses
- Avoid further protests in the western Ukraine which is bearing a disproportionate share of the human cost of the war
The Rebels:
- Consolidate recent gains .
- Reorganize and prepare for further fighting in case the cease fire ends
- Sort out internal differences and unite the leadership of the two republics (the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics).
The Russian Federation:
- End the bloodshed and show that this is the main concern of the Russian government
- Possibly avoid further sanctions
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MORE: Ukraine
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