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Despite Ceasefire, the Private Army of Ukraine's Biggest Oligarch is Still Fighting

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This post first appeared on Russia Insider

The agreement signed in Minsk has been implemented to tackle two key factors: 
  • The unstoppable advance of the Resistance with the conquer of strategic objectives. 
  • The mounting protests in western Ukraine for the many losses of the regular Ukrainian army. 

The consequences of the agreement signed yesterday have had different impacts on the actors in the conflict. 

  • The battalions of private oligarch Kolomoisky, will continue to fight.  The truce does not apply to them. 
  • Several battalions of the regular army withdrew from the front, voluntarily abandoning the positions held until a few hours ago. 
  • It currently has a discreet superiority in terms of men and military means available in consequence of some of the Ukraine army battalions leaving the war front.
  • In consideration of this factor, the resistance has enough strength and motivation to penetrate even further in the Ukrainian army held territories and regain occupied strategic positions. 

A final consideration. 

<figcaption>The rebels continue to gain superiority in men and weapons.</figcaption>
The rebels continue to gain superiority in men and weapons.

The war has essentially been won by the rebels. For Kiev the primary goal is now to eliminate any attempt to foster violence and ensure that it is not brought into it's backyard by those in the national guard that want to continue fighting. The main objectives therefore could become the elimination of punitive battalions of Kolomoisky.

A simple, but effective way to carry out this strategy could be summarized in few points: 

  • growing number of regular forces that retreat from the territory of the Resistance.  Without support from the Ukraine army, the punitive battalions would be much more vulnerable.
  • A lower coordination of intelligence from Kiev to the punitive battalions. 
  • Coordination between Kiev and Moscow to undermine the finances of Kolomoisky that is supporting the continuation of the fighting.

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