This post first appeared on Russia Insider
For any leader, it is important to have a few advisors who come across as total psychopaths. It keeps your enemies (and friends) on their toes.
But what happens when your key foreign policy advisor actually is completely insane, and an ignoramus to boot? President Trump found out first hand with John Bolton. Fortunately for his administration, and for world peace, he took corrective action.
On Tuesday, President Trump fired his National Security Advisor, John Bolton. "Fired" is the word. It's used in English when somebody is immediately dismissed. Trump announced his decision through Twitter. And he frankly explained to journalists that A: Bolton didn't get along with the president's team at the White House and B: He made major foreign policy mistakes. As an example, Trump mentioned Bolton upsetting the positive dynamics in the North Korea negotiations when Bolton decided to threaten Kim Jong-un with the Libyan scenario.
The Libyan scenario is when the country is bombed, its leader, Muammar Gaddafi, is killed, and the state is destroyed, with the people put back into the Middle Ages. Trump doesn't conceal now that after Bolton's words about the Libyan scenario for North Korea he was enraged. However, he was silent about it at the time, letting Bolton claim that he had no disagreements with the U.S. President. And all the rumors about those disagreements are evil, fake stories, coming from enemies and, above all, from Russia. The American press, via the NY Times and Bloomberg, pleasingly assisted Bolton, spreading the White House unanimity thesis, which was, as it's absolutely clear now, fake.
Meanwhile, Bolton led Trump to one foreign policy dead end after another. And here are the names of those dead ends for America. China. The trade war is its peak, with no prospects of solving it. Russia. The relationship is worse than ever. The arms control treaties have been terminated, there are no new ones, and nobody's working on them. More often, experts speak about the threat of nuclear war, with mutual annihilation. Iran. The nuclear deal has been canceled, New sanctions have been imposed, although the U.S. didn't get anything from Tehran. North Korea. No progress. The just-started process was re-frozen. Afghanistan. Bolton managed to hold back the talks at Camp David with the Taliban and the president of Afghanistan, as suggested by Trump.
The U.S. positions on the Middle East didn't become stronger at all. In Turkey, everything is bad after they bought the Russian S-400 missile systems. The relations with their European NATO allies have lost sincerity.
But Trump's main headache in Europe is Ukraine. And with Kiev, John Bolton acted quite traitorously towards Trump. The topic turned out to be so painful for Trump that I think he even doesn't want to mention Ukraine as the last straw that defined the decision to fire Bolton. One would think, what's the matter here? There's, however, a reason. And the reason is deeply personal. And, how it sometimes happens, the personal outweighs even the geostrategic situation.
And the key here is this. Trump is already preparing for next year's elections. It's obvious that he wants to stay for a second term. His national support rating, according to CNN, dropped even further this week - to 39%. The most dangerous opponent from the Democrats, as of now, is Joseph Biden. Trump needs compromising material on Biden ASAP. And, through him, on the whole Democratic Party. In this sense, Trump may find the sweetest material in Ukraine. The material that it was Ukraine, not Russia, who interfered in the U.S. elections. That the dirty play against candidate Trump was led by the American Democrats from Ukraine. And how Biden's family business is connected with Ukraine. All that together is already called, in the USA, Ukraingate. But John Bolton was trying to protect Ukraine for some reason. He was covering it, ignoring Trump's burning interest in this matter.
Our next report will be dedicated to what Trump is trying to find in Ukraine.
But first, one observation. Really short. On Thursday, the debates of the Democratic Party's presidential candidates took place in Houston. Here are the three leaders, according to a survey. Joe Biden: At 76 years old, he's older than Trump. The 70-year-old Elizabeth Warren. And Bernie Sanders - he's 78 years old. Next fall, everybody will be a year older. Nancy Pelosi, the spiritual leader of the Democrats and Congress, is now 79 years old. If that's not a gerontocracy, then what is a gerontocracy?
This post first appeared on Russia Insider
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