Poroshenko is quickly running out of options, and his own former right-wing supporters could turn on him amidst major losses in the War on Donbass. Maybe he can borrow some neo-Nazis from Poland?
Andrew Korybko is our regular contributor. This article also appeared at Oriental Review
Poland has been the US’ primary Lead From Behind partner ever since thebeginning of the Ukrainian Crisis, having trained some of the rioters prior to EuroMaidan and supplied mercenaries to the fratricidal battlefield shortly thereafter.
Continuing its trend of destabilization, Poland has announced its intention to deepen its role in the civil war next door, proclaiming that it’s “open” to selling Ukraine weapons provided that the bankrupt state can cough up the cash. Not only that, but it appears poised to use its recently established “civilian military training” program as a front for training countless pro-Kiev irregulars to assist in the War on Donbass.
There’s a sense of urgency underpinning Poland’s actions, however, since if Poroshenko’s power isn’t propped up soon (preferably with foreign fighters and/or military successes), he runs the risk of being overthrown in a radical right-wing coup. Unintentionally, though, Poland’s militant training may have the effect of increasing right-wing terrorism all across Europe, which would create a runaway ideological monster that can deepen the continent’s divisions and tear apart some of its more liberal-multicultural societies.
The Proxy Hive
All of Poland’s neo-imperial plans could be for naught, however, if Poroshenko, the consummate pushover, doesn’t remain in power. His forced replacement by extreme right-wing nationalists (even with the support of the US) could mean that Kiev would no longer consent to being a Polish colony, hence why it is absolutely imperative for Poland to keep their preferred proxy in power through fighters and arms. Control over Ukraine (either singular or shared with the US) and the subsequent pseudo-reestablishment of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth is of the highest priority for the Polish political class. Since their 40-million-plus-strong population has been steadily indoctrinated with this ideology for over two decades already, the entire country has turned into a buzzing proxy hive of destabilization that is on the verge of being unleashed against Ukraine with the advent of the ‘civilian military training’ project.
The Plots Against Poroshenko
Poland’s man in Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, has predictably found himself in hot water for his handling of the country’s civil war, and Poland will have its hands full in trying to stem the growing opposition to his rule. The conflict in Donbass has proved to be a bloody failure so far, and with thousands of pro-Kiev soldiers encircled at the moment and facing imminent defeat or surrender, the pressure is only expected to keep mounting against the beleaguered ‘president’. Even before Kiev’s rapid military reversals in the past few days, the alternative media was already abuzz about talk of a forthcoming right-wing coup against Poroshenko. Members of the Aidar Battalion, one of Pravy Sektor’s fascist counterparts that has been accused of war crimes by Amnesty International, agitated outside the Ukrainian Defense Ministry on Saturday against their official disbandment, illustrating the tense relationship between official Kiev and its unofficial death squads.
Poland And The Pandora’s Box Of Right-Wing Terrorism
Faced with the very realistic threat that an extreme right-wing coup could be carried out against Poroshenko in the coming months, Poland made the decision to open up its proxy training camps on 1 March. It is not known how long the ‘civilian volunteers’ will train for, nor if there will be different tiers for various specializations (e.g. demolition, sabotage, etc.), but it is argued that many of the militant ‘graduates’ will migrate over to Ukraine to assist Poroshenko’s forces in Donbass, with the hope that they will help tilt the war in Kiev’s favor, stave off the growing coup concerns, and provide loyal security to the ‘president’. They might even be more highly trained than the Ukrainian National Guard fighting on the front lines, whose members are reported to only have three weeks of training before their deployment.
One must also keep in mind that the Polish ‘volunteers’ would be fighting on behalf of their ‘historic-patriotic’ ideology, meaning that they may not desert at the same high rate as the reluctant Ukrainian conscripts or require the threat of ‘barrier troops’ to prevent them from retreating under the pane of death. Stepping back and looking at the situation structurally, Poland is essentially training ideologically motivated militants for deployment in a foreign warzone, which looks eerily similar to what Turkey has been doing for the past couple years. While Turkey was (and still is) training extreme Islamists, Poland is training extreme right-wing nationalists, of which it happens to have its own problem with. Since Poland seems intent to become the ‘Slavic Turkey’ at all costs, it may turn out that its radical nationalist militants become a pan-regional problem in the same manner as Turkey’s radical Islamist ones.
In fact, the author wrote this prediction almost exactly one year ago on 21 February, 2014:
Ukraine could quite possibly become a training ground for other European far-right militants, or the ones currently in Ukraine can go on to teach the ‘tools of their trade’ to the highest bidder in other European states. Just as Turkey is supporting the extreme Islamists in Syria via its support for the fighters there, Poland can be said to be flirting with extreme far-right nationalists in Ukraine…And just as the extreme Islamists got out of the control of their handlers and now endanger the entire Middle East, the risk remains that the extreme far-right nationalists may become uncontrollable in Ukraine as well and come to endanger the entire EU. When comparing Poland to Turkey and Ukraine to Syria, it is proven that the Arab Spring has come to Europe in more ways than meet the eye.
Geopolitical analyst Joaquim Flores of the Center For Syncretic Studies followed up with a detailed forecast in mid-September about how extreme right-wing Ukrainian militants can precipitate a European transnational interstate crisis in a similar manner as ISIL has done in the Mideast. Not only that, but remembering that many right-wing Eastern European ‘nationalists’ are Nazi-affiliated, they could, as the author predicted in the above quotation block, also train and cooperate with their ideological brethren further afield in Western Europe to create deeper intrastate divisions along racial and religious lines.
This has become more threatening ever since the Charlie Hebdo attacks blew the lid off the ‘clash of civilizations’ theory that many in Europe are now ascribing to, although the attack’s ultimate legacy will likely be more indicative of an intra-civilizational clash within the West itself. All that it takes for the risk of terrorism to increase in Europe isn’t more returning jihadis (although they’re certainly a serious threat), but a handful of ideologically zealous right-wing militants from Ukraine or unemployed ‘civilian volunteers’ from Poland to train their Western counterparts in the tools of destruction. After becoming versed in their militant training, right-wing terrorists in Western Europe may not only target some of their perceived liberal enemies (as Breivik did with his Oslo bomb), but also ethnic and religious minorities such as the North African Muslims in Paris, who are already experiencing more hate crimes as a result of Charlie Hebdo.
The nightmare scenario would be if a coordinated attack is carried out against both types of these targets inside a major European city, partaken with a level of precision similar to that of the Pakistani terrorists in Mumbai in 2008 (or even the Charlie Hebdo attackers). The effect of this tragic but realistic scenario would be to rip the targeted society apart at its seams (especially if it’s a liberal-multicultural one like France), and this Pandora’s Box of right-wing terrorism becomes ever more probable as Poland continues to pump more right-wing militants into Ukraine and the US supports the existing ones operating in the East.
The massive danger with this plan, however, is that more right-wing militants will be active inside Ukraine, meaning that an ever increasing number of ideologically motivated non-state actors will be acquiring not only the skills, but also the experience in military affairs that can be put to use outside the Donbass cauldron. Predictably, the Eastern European right-wing militants (be they Polish or Ukrainian) will transfer their knowledge to affiliated groups in Western Europe either for the right price or out of ideological solidarity, raising the risk that the horrors in Ukraine will be replicated in France, for example. By unleashing the genie and helping right-wing radicalism run wild across Europe, Poland is closely mirroring Turkey’s ISIL legacy in the Mideast, with a similar chance of chaos and unintended blowback.