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Why the Ceasefire is Falling Apart


This post first appeared on Russia Insider

Since the agreements signed in Minsk, the chronicle of the fighting has changed on both sides of the conflict.
The main objective, which applies both to Kiev and to rebels, is to avoid being seen as responsible for the breach of the cease fire rules. 
Here are the military activity and goals of each side.  The situation is changing rapidly. 
Ukrainian army: 
  • The punitive battalions continue to hit the city with mortars and heavy weapons of war, causing many civilian deaths. 
  • The positions that are in control of the regular army in the eastern region of the country are continuing fortification in terms of manpower, equipment and ammunition. 


  • Continuous attempts are underway over the last three days to take full control of the Donetsk airport and in this way, stop the shelling on civilians.
  • Fortification of the positions gained in recent weeks continue with manpower and ammunition. 

In the coming weeks not much will change as both sides will likely maintain this "fictitious cease fire".

<figcaption>Kiev army military tanks destroyed by the rebels in the last days of covert-fighting</figcaption>
Kiev army military tanks destroyed by the rebels in the last days of covert-fighting

What could radically change the situation is a war event (the Resistance successfully taking Donetsk Airport?) that could be used (by any of the two sides) as the casus belli for an open full resumption of the fighting.


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