It seems Syria is gathering all its best and heaviest (most mechanized) units for the offensive in the south west. Could Russian and Syrian staff officers be preparing a classical Soviet "Deep Operation" offensive to overwhelm and break up the enemy at lightning speed (see Uranus, Bagration, Vistula-Oder, and August Storm)?
The Syrian military is preparing to launch their largest offensive of the war next week, as they finalize their plans to kickoff this imperative operation in the provinces of Dara’a and Al-Quneitra.
According to a military source in Damascus, the government offensivewill be led by two major forces in the Syrian Arab Army: the Tiger Forces and 4th Division.
The Tiger Forces are tasked with retaking the southern districts of Dara’a city, while the 4th Division will be split between the Al-Quneitra and Dara’a governorates.
Joining these two divisions will be a large number of soldiers and paramilitary troops that were previously deployed in the Damascus, Al-Sweida, Homs, and Hama governorates.
Below is a list of units participating in this battle:
Syrian Arab Army :
- 4th Division
- 39th Brigade
- 40th Brigade
- 42nd Brigade (Ghiath Forces)
- 5th Armored Division
- 15th Brigade
- 7th Division
- 9th Division
- Shock Forces
- 15th Special Forces Division
- 90th Brigade
- Republican Guard
- 105th Brigade
- 106th Brigade
- Palestine Liberation Army (Palestinian wing of the Syrian Army)
- Tiger Forces
- National Defense Forces (NDF)
- Liwaa Suqour Al-Quneitra
- Fouj Al-Joulan
- East Qalamoun Division
- Damascus Division
- Homs Division
- Dara’a Division
- Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP)
- Liwaa Al-Quds (Palestinian-Syrian faction from Aleppo)
- Raqqa tribal fighters
"Betting the Farm" is an old military saying concerning a situation in which one side in a major war decides to commit so much of its forces to an action that if failure and decimation occurs then the side suffering that will be permanently crippled.
The coming offensive in Daraa and Quneitra governorates (provinces) appears to have all the hallmarks of such an action. Most of the first rate heavy units of the SAA will be committed to this effort. Presumably the SAG intends to crush the rebellion in the SW and drive its line of control up to within sight of the Israeli forts on the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.
What will Israel's reaction to this be? How effective will Syrian air defenses be against a reaction? What will Russia's reaction be to Israeli attacks on its ally's forces?