"Washington has frankly lost in the race for world-leadership with new and old competitors."
Yurasumy is a hugely popular poltiical blogger in Russia, by some counts the most popular. He has a huge following.
This article originally appeared at Fort Russ
“The US opens new fronts of Confrontation”
Only the lazy aren’t describing the events which are now happening at the world’s “lottery sites.” Given that these events were skillfully prepared and have far-reaching consequences, I can’t stand aside. But I won’t describe them at all from a “usual perspective,” but rather through the prism of the global confrontation between the US and the alliance of China and Russia.
On Monday, the whole world was following events on stock markets. The baton for the next collapse of the Chinese stock market was picked up by Asian, European, and then American “sweepstakes.” It wouldn’t be worth talking about it if not for a strong feeling of artificiality.
What alerted me
The bubble on the Chinese stock market wouldn’t have such a global impact if it all that it was was a bubble on the Chinese market.
First, the collapse of the Chinese stock exchange happened at the end of June. In July, the Chinese market weathered the storm much stronger. But the Chinese leadership acted quickly, like clockwork. A huge sum of 3 trillion yuan (about $483 billion) was allocated to prevent panic sales. Many holders, as if they were a team, announced that they were trying to stabilize and not play the market...almost everything calmed down.
Despite the collapse of the Shanghai exchange by 30%, global markets reacted sluggishly and reluctantly. The impression was that the Chinese government had a pre-planned operation in popping the stock bubble which had started to scare the Chinese government in late 2014.
To understand the essence of the problem, it is necessary to look at recent history. The ongoing crisis which began in 2007 came to China much weaker than Russia, Europe, and the US. China’s economic growth slowed down, but that’s it. Even the collapse in 2009 did not cause a recession. The Chinese government quickly switched the economy towards the domestic market, stimulating it by accelerating the growth of the population’s incomes. Between 2007 and 2015, the minimum salary in the country increased by almost 2.5 times. Its annual growth was 11-15%. Throughout industry as a whole, wages increased almost three times. In fact, the global crisis, started by the US in 2007, didn’t affect China. On the contrary, it has become stronger in relation to its competitors. And it was necessary to do something about this...
No matter what, the military of potential of Russia has grown during the past several years. Together, the economy of China and the armed forces of Russia have become threat no.1 for the US. Washington has frankly lost in the race for world-leadership with new and old competitors.
The fact that the US deliberately worsens the situation in any given point in the world isn’t to say that they can allow themselves to do so. No, it says that they can’t afford to allow themselves to wait any longer. The moment awaits when China and Russia will already no longer ask America to move over on the throne. They will simply set up a new one right beside.
They [the US] started to destabilize Russia by aiding conflicts on its borders and creating conditions for confrontation in Europe.
For China, a different scheme was chosen...a bubble on the stock market began to swell out of nowhere in the late summer of 2014. There was a powerful “information assault” in the press advising how to invest profitably in the Chinese stock market and solve for the customer (the US) one big complex task: the withdrawal of money from the real sector of consumption in the country and move them to the virtual stock market. Thus was achieved a comprehensive success: the deceleration of the Chinese economy and pumping a bubble which threatened the country’s stability.
It’s not necessary to be a rocket scientist in order to predict the consequence that sooner or later the economy will slow down, to be followed by a powerful information strike which would cause a global storm and sweep away all remaining competitors.
In December, it was clear that the US was able to start a chain reaction of growth on Chinese stock markets. It was only a matter of time before the US saw it fit to start a storm. China wisely decided not to wait and took the initiative while Washington wasn’t ready. So, the storm didn’t happen in July. And this means that the US had no relationship with the July collapse of the Chinese stock market. There was a false start, which threatened the US with the destruction of their strategy. The Chinese leadership, applying a proactive strategy of deflating the stock bubble, in fact returned the situation to its original trajectory. Money went back into the economy and pushed it forward, solving the problem of growth. The US didn’t have the right to wait.
And then August followed, and a slightly less severe decline on the Shanghai stock exchange was the result of a global financial tsunami.
On August 18, US markets began to fall (the Chinese ones at this time too, although not so feverishly and critically, but rather quite habitually). August 20 came rapidly, and on August 24, “panic” started throughout the world.
But before this, in July, China accused the West and the US of destabilizing the Chinese economy and began an unprecedented drain of US securities: $106 billion in two weeks, and for July-August alone about $140 billion. In addition, China devalued the yuan by almost 4%.
The prelude was over. Actually, we are back to the usual story. The US is trying to attack, but China is defending itself. And very successfully.
Now, having outlined this version of events, one can apply it to other events that have happened in the past year, and see what happened.
As we remember, the confrontation is between the US and China plus Russia. In 2013, the main blow was delivered to Russia. The most acute phase of the crisis for Moscow was in February-May, 2014. Since the middle of June, it became the clear the main tasks of the US in Ukraine were not quickly accomplished, and it is likely that they will be stuck there for a long time. Russia stubbornly didn’t enter into direct military conflict in Donbass and into open confrontation with Europe. On the contrary, Russia tried to seize the initiative, agreeing to talks with Kiev in the Normandy format on June 6, 2015. This has led to the US losing pace and possibly losing the game.
The change of the strategy of destroying main opponents was necessary. In line with this, the US is dragging on the war in Ukraine and shackling problems to Russia’s borders while fighting economically with China. The world economy has entered a new phase of acute crisis, as commodity markets are falling after China. The “allies” are deprived of a foothold in the form of a balanced economy and balanced finances. July and August have already cost China 20% of its foreign reserves. Further, the crisis in Russia and China is growing, triggering internal political problems.
The most convenient time of all for a new strike is October-November, 2015. Apparently, at this time, an acute economic crisis is planned. As in 2008.
And in the end there is a sharp reversal of the situation in favor of the United States which, simultaneously with the defeat of one of its main competitors, remains the only safe haven against the background of a super crisis in Eurasia.
This is how it was envisioned. But it seems that China took the lead, and now the initiative is on its side. There are losses, but they are tolerable. A concrete argument appeared to drain US “papers” even more than the Celestial Empire is busying itself with.
The oil trail
Fuel to the fire was added on the oil market. It was necessary to ensure the collapse of Saudi Arabia and Iran at the right moment...one according to plan, and the other under the yoke of circumstances. In June, 2014, the US and Europe announced that they decided to lift sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. This decision, of course, didn’t open the oil market to Iran, but allowed Western governments to be the “valve,” which at any moment could open another oil-gas valve in the world to lower prices on commodity markets. 2015 was a year of slow growth for Iranian energy exports, and the main attack on the “competitors” is scheduled for January 1, 2016, when Iranian oil will be able to be exported to the EU.
Lately, Saudi Arabia has created a market surplus of oil, ignoring all requests from colleagues of OPEC to agree on a program of reducing production. Now, all of these indications (the war in Ukraine, the artificial inhibition of China, permitting Iran to enter oil and gas markets, the rabid and unreasonable race of the Saudis for oil) fit neatly into a picture of the stages of the US’s hybrid war for global hegemony.
What could the consequences be? Actually, nothing unexpected is happening. There is a global war in hybrid form. Opponents are striking each other with blows, feeling weaknesses, and defending themselves against enemy counterattacks.
Russia. It is obvious to me that if events develop in a similar scenario, there will be an attempt to destabilize Russia in autumn (there are many indications of preparations for this). It will likely be unsuccessful (because I see a number of indications of counter-work in this direction), but this should not pert Russia’s attention away from such problems beyond its borders: Ukraine, Kazakhstan, the Middle East, etc.
By destabilizing, I understand systemic terrorist attacks in an attempt to play the card of national discord.
USA. For Washington, everything is at stake. For them, nothing has changed. They are trying to defend their right to global hegemony and single-handedly robbing the whole world. Because of this, we cannot rely on agreements which will be respected only at times when they are profitable. No one has any illusions on this score. The masks are cast off and the (hybrid) guns are loaded. US actions are heavily influenced by elections, which are just over a year away.
The main problem of the United States now, and here I agree with Brzezinski and Kissinger, is that planning periods are shifted. All the political operations of the White House are produced in terms of 4 and 8 years. No more. This was already the reason for defeat in China (China has already returned to the policy of allying with Russia). If this alliance was joined by Germany, then any short term gains would be outweighed by long-term losses.
Europe. Europe will get another bloodletting in the form of increasing economic decline. The recession of the economy, at the threshold of which we are already standing, is almost a foregone conclusion. How deep it will be is dependent on the vicissitudes of major battles. If Europe “doesn’t obey,” she is guaranteed internal destabilization.
China. Beijing, as a clever ally, has for a long time been gathering heat in its hands with Russia. It is not its fault that the US first hit Russia. But China did everything in oder to receive maximum benefits. Now the Chinese economic front and possible destabilization on its borders is bit by bit sharpening the participation of the allies in global war. One can definitely admire the way in which China solved the problem of the stock market. Quickly, clearly, and thoroughly. This doesn’t mean that China can avoid problems, but that in any case it can weaken their effects.
Ukraine. I understand the smile (it’s a backwater, and little depends on Ukraine itself). But it is my homeland and I cannot refrain from considering it. The Ukrainian front against Russia was the major front of the US in 2013 and for the first half of 2014. By the end of last year, it became one of many fronts. If global destabilization occurs, the Ukrainian front threatens to get lost on the list of American problems, with all the consequences for the problems of the country [Ukraine] itself.