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Russian Military Analyst: Significant Covert Western Activity in Ukraine


This post first appeared on Russia Insider

Vladimir Kozin is a Professor of the Russian Academy of Military Sciences and Head of the Group of Advisers to the Director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies.

He argues here that the covert operation the CIA has been running in the Ukraine is poorly conceived, and will likely fail.

<figcaption>The CIA sometimes screws things up, like in HBO's "Homeland"</figcaption>
The CIA sometimes screws things up, like in HBO's "Homeland"

He submitted this piece to RI.  It is an adaptation of a radio interview  (text) he gave to Russian State Radio.

There is already substantial evidence of illegal arms supplies flowing into Ukraine from the West. I myself have seen pictures of a captured Ukrainian tank with electronic equipment supplied by “the Thales Company, UK”.

That Kiev is being provided with intelligence data and reconnaissance material is irrefutable. But the evidence points to much deeper western involvement in the conflict than has been previously acknowledged.

Poroshenko has said that on the side lines of the recent NATO summit in Newport, Wales, he was promised arms supplies by various NATO powers. If so, this is also illegal. It violates official documents of the EU and OSCE (of which practically all the NATO powers are also members) that expressly prohibit arms supplies to parties involved in a conflict in the Europe.

Although it is unlikely the western powers will send troops to the conflict zone, there is no question that western advisers and mercenaries are already operational in Ukraine. All this violates the same official documents that prohibit arms supplies. 

A peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis requires not merely a ceasefire but a complete withdrawal of all Ukrainian regular troops and irregular formations from the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Instead the western powers act illegally in a way that encourages Kiev to look for military solutions that can only lead to a dead end.

Russia comes in for criticism from the West for doing the same thing. Yet, there is no evidence of Moscow doing so. There are Russian volunteers with the Resistance. However, unlike western mercenaries fighting for Kiev, they are helping the Resistance defend their territory, families and homes.

Western military help to Kiev is driven by an obsession to create a united Ukraine firmly anchored in the western camp. This is completely unrealistic. If nothing else the timescale is too short.

A retired CIA officer once told me that at least a year of planning is needed before a covert operation of this sort can succeed. The West has not given itself that year, and now seems unable to understand that the people of the Donbas have had enough. They will never join Ukraine again. Too much blood has been spilt, too much deep-seated antipathy has been accumulated. They want a separate state within the administrative boundaries of their own land.

Nothing the West can do will change that.

Instead of recognising this reality, the West’s illegal military support for Kiev risks entrenching a regime which wages war on its own people. Heavy artillery (including multiple rocket launchers and ballistic missiles) have already been used against populated areas since the Minsk Protocol was signed September 5.

If Poroshenko and his regime want to win over the people of the Donbas by rebuilding the Ukrainian economy they should do so by offering peaceful incentives.

Military solutions by contrast can only lead to further conflict and deadlock. Yet that is what the West’s illegal military support for Kiev encourages.

This article, slightly edited by its author, is a condensed version of an interview by the author with Voice of Russia, the text of which may be found here.

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