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Pros and Cons of the Peace Negotiations for Ukraine

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This post first appeared on Russia Insider


This is the second of a 3 article series (the first one is about the Resistance) , where we lay out the pros and cons facing the three parties to the peace negotations; Ukraine, Russia, and the Resistance.  
 
Todays article explains Ukraine point of view.  
 
Tomorrow we will present the same for Russia.
 
Ukrainian Government
 
Pros: 
 
  • Militarily the war was already lost so the agreements avoided a total surrender. 
  • 65% of military vehicles were lost or destroyed so there was no possibility of sustaining an offensive in any event.
  • The economic situation in Ukraine made it impossible to continue the war. 
  • The agreements allow for the release of the very large number of prisoners captured by the Resistance.  Before the ceasefire this was becoming a serious political problem with growing protests against the war from the families of the prisoners especially in the government's political heartland, the west of the country.  
  • The heavy losses of men and machines were becoming unsustainable, there being no means to replace them. The fourth mobilisation was a failure whilst the large number of deaths were leading to growing protests against the war  . 
  • NATO's refusal to give Ukraine 'special status' extinguished any hope of direct western military intervention to turn the tide of the war. 
  • Western military assistance in terms of mercenaries, equipment and intelligence, because of the need for secrecy, was insufficent to turn the tide of the war. 

 

Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Petro Poroshenko
Cons: 
 
  • The end of the fighting focuses attention and responsibility for Ukraine's economic crisis on the politicians in Kiev and removes the excuse of Russian aggression. 
  • The agreements do nothing to remedy the collapse of trade links with Russia, which is devastating whole sectors of the economy. 
  • The agreements essentially freeze the conflict.  This means the loss of the two eastern regions Kiev fought to retain. It also means Kiev has been forced to recognise them as legal entities by offering them special status, something it had previously said it would not do.
  • The loss of Donetsk and Lugansk regions will further undermine the Ukraine's already disintegrating economy.  In the immediate term Ukraine has lost access to coal from the Donbass at a time when it has had its gas from Russia cut off and is desperately short of energy to get through the winter. 

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