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Only America Is Interested in a War in Nagorno Karabakh

It’s a chance to open a third front against Russia near its border

This post first appeared on Russia Insider

The author is an arch-conservative ideologue of Eurasianism – the idea that Russia is a special civilization bridging the gap between the West and the East

This weekend, after many years of interruption, the “sleeping volcano” of Nagorno Karabakh is rumbling. Is the war starting up again or there is a way to avoid it?  

<figcaption>Russia's soft underbelly</figcaption>
Russia's soft underbelly

The most important thing one should understand about the Karabakh conflict is that there is no solution. The way matters stand now – or rather, the way they stood before last weekend when guns come into play – was the optimal situation for all parties.

In geopolitical terms, the direct participants in the conflict are Armenia and Azerbaijan, both of which generally have friendly relationships with Russia. Russia has closer ties with Armenia through political, economic and military partnerships, but Russia and Azerbaijan do not consider each other as enemies. Nagorno Karabakh is now controlled by Armenia and there are no Azeris at all, while earlier they were about half the population. Yet not even Armenia recognizes the Republic of Nagorno Karabakh as a sovereign state.

Russia agrees with Armenia controlling this territory, although it legally belongs to Azerbaijan.  Conflict is unprofitable for Moscow in every way. Iran is facing the same situation. It has religious and historical ties with the Shia Azerbaijani, and ethnic relations with neighboring Armenians, and the status quo is fine with them.

But what about Armenians and Azeris themselves? The former are happy that Karabakh, which they conquered, is in their hands. It is not good to be an unrecognized state, but it is right to be alive and control the territory.

Strange as it may seem, Azerbaijan is also relatively happy: it is wrong to lose territory and get thousands of refugees, but everyone considers that Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and they hope to have a chance in future to change the situation.

Surprisingly, the situation is fine even with Turkey, which does not want to stir the pot. There are many Armenians in Turkey, there is Mount Ararat, and most of all there are Kurds. The last thing Ankara wants is to interfere in a bloody situation without any hope of gaining anything except a wave of separatism. Erdogan, pressured on both fronts, cannot de-escalate the situation with Moscow, and on top of this, there is Karabakh…

If war breaks out, no one will win: Armenians have proved they are good fighters, the Azeris can stand up for themselves and are well prepared. And whoever starts winning the war will lose politically. All the regional powers would lose in the event of war, but the US would benefit.

Actually, it is not the US as such, but the global elite of neocons and Hillary, who are to blame. They are playing their usual game, promising  recognition to Armenia and support to Azerbaijan.  If war breaks out, it will be another frontline against Russia alongside Syria and Novorossia.  Russia needs peace, and this is not a banal idea, but political realism.

Source: Katehon
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