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Kiev Regime Caves In – For Now

This post first appeared on Russia Insider

President Petro Poroshenko’s announcement of some kind of ceasefire and some kind peace process to end the violence in the east of country is a positive first step toward resolving Ukraine’s multiple crises.

We will be observing the following issues:

* Will the military listen to Poroshenko? What about the militias? Will they continue fighting?

* Is Poroshenko’s political position safe, i.e. does he have to worry about mobs and lampposts in Kiev?

* Does this mean Poroshenko has accepted some form of federalization and/or administrative de-centralization?

* How will NATO react to Poroshenko’s announcement? Will a new script have to be written of this week’s summit?

* What about the U.S. State Department? Will Victoria Nuland throw a fit?

* The anti-Kiev resistance has bragging rights now. The resistance humiliated the Ukrainian military. They have a taste of victory; will they adjust their demands?

* What role – directly or indirectly – will Russia play in any negotiations?

* Sanctions: what is the point of sanctions if there is a peace process in Ukraine?

* How will this impact the much needed Russia-Ukraine natural gas deal?


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