Teheran has a good chance to once again become a real power in the Middle East
Terrorist attacks, like the ones in Brussels and Paris, are possible everywhere, presuming there’s funding. This applies to an even greater extent to warfare. Religious motives may also play an important part, but the focus is the pursuit of power and question of funding: fighters must be rewarded, weapons paid for, sympathizers supported.
Now comes the question about ISIS financing. First of all, one has to look for the funding sources. The actions of Europe and the USA aren’t quite effective in this matter — account blocking, newly discussed elimination of cash and bans on entering the country for suspected people are hardly thwarting jihadists.
Even activities of the military and police have limited effects. Of course, bombing of terrorist posts in Syria and Iraq is important. Detection of perpetrators is a self-evident necessity. But the stopping of money sources and their origin is essential.
The followers of Saddam Hussein
The ISIS was launched in 2003 as a Sunni successor organization of the party of ousted Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. After the withdrawal of the United States Shiites succeeded in dominating the government of Iraq, pushing the Sunnis to the brink and to building close ties with the Shiite Iran. ISIS was supported by the Sunnis.
With the help of officers from Saddam Hussein's leadership team ISIS became a military organization, conquering parts of Iraq and Syria, declaring the area an Islamic state. Through military successes, the organization acquired meaning for the whole region and the funds began to flow abundantly.
Due to shortage of translation staff we’ve made a translation of the remaining part of the article via Google Translate. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Sales of oil brought millions
The IS conquered oil wells and achieved by selling millions. Lange were spared in the fighting against the organization, the sources, refineries and storage. In the fall of 2015 came to effective attacks. The revenue fell significantly, the oil price decline also affected and worsened the financial situation of the organization. The setbacks in recent times are a direct consequence of these developments. Therefore, the alliance against IS must put up the question, why it was not long before started with the bombing of oil facilities.
Through the establishment of the state of the IS was geopolitically interesting. In the region want to determine three states: The Sunni Turkey, the Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran. So it is a contest of Turks, Arabs and Persians. The IS understood as Arab power, where the term "Caliphate" claim to power over the entire Islamic world signals.
The support of Turkey
Turkey under Erdogan seeks the restoration of the Ottoman Empire to: In its greatest extent, the Ottoman Empire in 1830 extended in a huge arc of Hungary on the Balkans, the Middle East to Tunisia. In 1900 Turkey dominated the Middle East and lost the territory finally in WWI.
Therefore at least the reconquest of the southern borders neighboring Syria and Iraq is a concern for Turkey. The endeavor of Sunni IS to bring these two countries in their violence, Turkey seemed to provide an opportunity to exploit the activity of IS for its own purposes. The assassinations of IS in Egypt and the rise in Libya concerning former Ottoman territories. Thus, the IS support Turkey enjoyed long. However, the organization does not seem to be willing to let himself be exploited for Turkey - an attitude of the witness, the attacks in Ankara and Istanbul.
The benevolent toleration of Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia fears the dominance of Iran in the region and also rejects a revival of the Ottoman Empire. One sees an Islamic State in Syria and Iraq as a bulwark against Turkey and Iran not reluctant. The two adjoining Iran in the west, in the north to Turkey and south to Saudi Arabia countries could form a strategically valuable buffer. However, since the management of the IS has the Saudi Arabian royal family threatened destruction, is now supported by a support of the IS no more talk.
On the contrary: The two countries, who expects the IS benefits that Turkey and Saudi Arabia, are now talking of a joint military intervention against IS. The two countries need to put up the question why they even favored such an organization.
The contradictory policy of the West
The allied Western powers are partners of NATO State Turkey and the Oil State Saudi Arabia and have not intervened against the toleration of IS.
- The United States does not even comment on the numerous death sentences by beheading in Saudi Arabia.
- The EU looks across the violation of human rights in Turkey and the country pays even billions for the reception of refugees from Syria. Journalists who have revealed that Turkey Syrian extremists has supplied weapons, threatening in a recently conducted trial imprisonment. But the EU has formally continued to pursue an admission of Turkey into the EU.
- The repression of the people by the religious leaders in Iran is not an issue. The sanctions were lifted against the promise not to produce nuclear weapons.
- Only when IS the mass murder of the Yazidis, the spectacular heads on camera and similar atrocities are denounced.
The IS will be opposed by a powerful coalition
For the IS, it has become narrow. Iran was from the outset a declared enemy. Both sympathizers Turkey and Saudi Arabia were to opponents. Under these circumstances, the financial basis of the IS is weakened. Therefore, the organization is trying to cover up by spectacular attacks its weakness in prominent places worldwide.
The US and its allies fight IS. And does this now, even after prolonged hesitation Russia. Thus, one end of IS appears in sight. What is the region of the probable failure of the IS?
Iran is the actual winner and threatened the West
The big winner was Iran. The sanctions against the country are lifted gradually and the business leaders from the West courted the rulers in Tehran to snatch orders worth billions. Russia delivers eagerly military installations. The political consequences are negated.
Iran itself is recovering. Iraq is, if the IS goes down, completely under the control of Iran. Syria ruler Assad is an ally of Iran. While the US wants to after the termination of the war a Syria without Assad, but at the moment it does not look like. So Iran would Iraq and Syria largely control. Lebanon is in the grip of Hezbollah, which also depends on Iran. In short, the weak yesterday Iran could dominate the region.
Thus isolation Turkey is emerging in the North, which would bury the dreams of the restoration of the Ottoman Empire. In southern Saudi Arabia were not a decisive factor of power in the region. Israel came under extreme pressure. In short, the three traditional partners of the US and the West in trouble, and Iran is the major threat - that a country that has the US, Israel and the West as a whole threatened only in the past few days with total destruction.
Wars and bombings are only possible with sufficient cash resources. These are available in the near future Iran. While the US, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia make the destruction of the IS, cheering those in power in Tehran.
The four recently allied actors USA, Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia would be well advised to consider now how to get Iran to grips with tomorrow. Whereby questionable whether Russia then still remains part of the alliance.
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