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The End of Maidan - Ukraine Rewinds to 1996

“The only reason why the new premier won’t be able to make the situation any worse is because it can’t get any worse”

This post first appeared on Russia Insider

The author is Ukraine's former First Deputy Prime Minister

When Ukraine Premier Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced his resignation, not only the President's close associates but people all over the country breathed a sigh of relief, hoping for the end of yet another political crisis. As a result  of his ‘peaceful’ resignation the person who finished ruining the economy will not be punished. Yatsenyuk’s party, the ‘National Front’ will remain part of the ruling coalition and the majority of his teammates will stay in office.

<figcaption>“Now you know what a reformer looks like”, says Groysman’s brand new T-Shirt</figcaption>
“Now you know what a reformer looks like”, says Groysman’s brand new T-Shirt

In general, it’s up to the President and those who seeking profits during the rigged games and backroom confabs”, as was noted by Mr. Saakashvili. However, it’s still too early to talk about ending the political crisis. The country will face some wild squabbling over cabinet appointments, the signing of the coalition agreement and the attitude of those who are ‘insulted’ during the redistribution of power and money. 

The Oligarchs will be not be offended: the resignation of Yatsenyuk after many months of confrontation with the President proves that the rich and the powerful can reach a consensus. The fact that he resigned voluntarily means that they and the President found his weak point and were given some guarantees.

The country will also pay for his ‘peaceful’ departure with the rejection of early parliamentary elections. More generally, this implies the rejection of a parliamentary presidential republic. With the arrival of Vladimir Groysman, this will be the first time in many years that a Presidential protégé who is not supported by the voters will become the head of parliament, giving President sole executive power. This rather coincides with the Constitution of 1996 than with the Constitution of 2004 that was discussed in Maidan,which is why we can say that the ‘revolution’ in the Ukraine is over.

The post-Maidan power system having proved its inefficiency, it is being dismantled by those the Maidan put in power. Objectively, the period of ‘restoration’ that is coming looks like a farce. 

If the new set in power promises politicians the illusion of stability, ordinary Ukrainians can expect nothing. The political games in Kiev are being played out against the background of the situation in the Donbass and other regions. There were clashes over the weekend in Odessa; there is unrest in the Volynskaya and Rovnenskaya regions – people living in poverty refuse to stop the illegal production of amber. 

Vladimir Groysman has few chances of becoming a successful premier. First, he is not an independent politician and thus can’t say ‘no’. Second, he will be forced to follow the current policy in which the economy takes not second, but third or fourth place. It’s obvious that Ukraine’s economy cannot be restored without economic relations with Russia. But even if Groysman knows this, he will not be allowed to act. 

The only reason why the new premier won’t be able to make the situation any worse is because it can’t get any worse. The economy is at rock bottom and the country is practically bankrupt. At best the Ukraine will have a few points of economic growth a year in the immediate future. It will be a long time before the country catches up to 2013 levels.

The Ukraine should have voted for an early election, to see the quickest removal from power of those who led it into civil war and bankruptcy. But instead, the same pack of low cards will be redistributed, and the Ukraine and its people will continue to lose. 

Source: Izvestia
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