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Antagonism Growing Between Kiev Military Factions

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This post first appeared on Russia Insider


Here's an update on what is happening on both sides:
 
Ukraine: 
  • For economic reasons, linked to the collapse of the country's industrial system, the oligarchs are exerting pressure by any means to Poroshenko (especially Akmetov and Kolomoiski) to restart the aggression on the east.
  • The ceasefire in Minsk has exacerbated friction between the punitive battalions of the National Guard and the regular army, loyal to the political power in Kiev. The recent protests in Kiev show that the confrontation is growing. 
  • The lack of major military supplies to Ukraine by NATO countries continues to foster dissatisfaction inside the Ukrainian army.
  • The impossibility for Ukraine to become a special member of NATO is also becoming an issue in the Ukraine parliament. Big money was supposed to flow into Kiev with this status.
Resistance: 
  • There are two opposing groups: those who do not agree with the truce and those who support it. This is a situation that has to be solved in a political way by the representatives of Novorossiya.
  • Pressure will increase as Moscow tries to push the 'anti-truce' faction to start talking with Kiev. 
  • Novorossiya is still suffering a lack of a leadership figure. This is an essential point to reconcile the political and the military factions and strengthen the resistance. 
  • The transformation of the militia into a regular army continues to produce friction between commanders.  This was predictable and more time will be needed to achieve this important goal.

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