'The Ukrainian army would be completely destroyed by air strikes, and communication would be disrupted'
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"What would happen if Ukraine attacked Russia?"
This is a pretty silly question.
I left the Ukrainian military in December 2012, with an officer rank. Of course, many things have changed since then but I am still very well informed by my friends; many of my friends are currently on the front lines.
I assume you are asking about the military aspect, like what would happen?
Within a few hours, Russia would conduct a series of strikes on the air-defense systems. Probably, they would use the system “Caliber” which they have used in Syria. They also have plenty of systems like the C-10 “Granat”,
The Ukrainian army is full of Russian intelligence informants and Russia is very well-informed about our air and missile defenses, so it is very unlikely that Ukraine would be able to conceal any Surface-Air systems to prevent air strikes.
The same would happen with airfields, communication and supply lines. Once Russia wipes out the anti-air systems, they would start a massive aerial strike on the Ukrainian armored and motorized units.
After one day, it would look like this:
By that point, the Ukrainian army would panic and make a chaotic retreat.
Most likely, Russia would then launch a counter-attack from 4 directions:
Northern- Through the highway between Chernigov and Kiev
Eastern - Donbass and Lugansk area
Southern - From Crimea
South-West - From the Transnistria republic.
I would assume that the only serious resistance that the Ukrainian army could do would be in an urban area, but that would lead to thousands of civilian casualties and Russia wouldn’t do that; I doubt that the Russian population would support that. Despite the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the last few years, almost every family from Russia has relatives in Ukraine.
So, to cut a long story short: the Ukrainian army would be completely destroyed by air strikes, and communication would be disrupted.
If I was still in the Ukrainian army, I would refuse to attack Russia; it would be better to face jail than to die or order your platoon/company to execute a mission with a guaranteed failure. I wouldn’t do that.
P.S: Several fellow Ukrainians are calling me a traitor. I am not surprised to hear that, because currently, everyone who has an opinion different from the current government ends up being called a traitor and getting jailed. That’s what we were fighting for, right? For European standards and freedom of speech?
Unlike you guys, I was on “Maidan” and participated in the Coup against the previous government, and did many other things during 2014 and 2015. The only difference is that I was able to step back, resign from my duties in the organization I was in (I don’t want to mention its name) and come to a conclusion that war is not a solution and only the ability to forgive, ask for forgiveness and negotiate can lead to peace and prosperity.
Just like you, I believed that tanks and soldiers could bring back “Constitutional order”. The people of Eastern Ukraine proved otherwise through blood and pain. We didn’t ask their opinion when we removed the elected President from his seat and we didn’t ask for their opinion when we tried to remove Russian as the regional language. So why blame them?
If you guys think that we are fighting with Russia - you are wrong. Ukrainians are fighting against Ukrainians. One side is supported by Russia, another side by NATO countries. And so you call me a traitor because I realize that it’s civil war and not a “foreign invasion”?
Sorry, but if you want to kill people like you, from the same country - go ahead, visit the nearest recruiting center (VOENKOMAT) and join the military or join the volunteer battalions, so you can make some quick cash at the checkpoints by demanding bribes from drivers who pass through those checkpoints.
Good luck with that.
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