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Ukraine Is Using Minsk to Build a First Strike Army

Ukraine's regular army was never formidable, but with Washington's help, it's using the time bought by the ceasefire to build up its forces

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This post first appeared on Russia Insider

The author is a popular Ukrainian blogger who also has a big following in Russia

Ukraine is readying for war. The army is being reorganized according to a far-reaching and ambitious plan. The generals and political leaders have given themselves of 3 to 5 years for the armed forces to have a new image and be able to take on new tasks. 

Let’s sort these out:

At the recent annual meeting with the armed forces high command held on Defender’s Day, president Petro Poroshenko announced a military increase and reorganization that will enable Kiev to meet any potential challenge, including Crimea and Transdniestria.

I decided to take a more thorough look at Ukraine’s new military doctrine. 

To better understand the transformation of the Ukrainian army you have to look at recent history. When in March 2014, the temporary president of Ukraine, Alexander Turchinov, announced a campaign to the east, the Armed Forces were not ready, either technically or geographically. The country had inherited a series of military bases from the USSR, with most regular troops were on the right bank of Dnepr and in its immediate area. There was no regular army in the Donbass, the nearest brigade being the 92nd light armored brigade base south of Kharkov. That’s why the Ukrainian army could not make a stand against the rebels in Donbass.

Ukrainian patriots accuse the president Yanukovich of having ruined the army.  However, it was actually the third president of Ukraine, Victor Yuschenko, who planned to “ruin” the Ukrainian army under an entirely different military doctrine, before Washington planned to use Ukraine against Russia. 

The new scenario changed the Ukrainian army as well as the country’s military doctrine, events in 2014 coming thick and fast. All military forces were sent to the Russian-Ukrainian border to prevent an “invasion” that never happened.

Then in violation of the Constitution, the Ukrainian army became involved in a military confrontation with the citizens of the Donbass who turned against Kiev. The first phase of the Ukraine civil war started: with the (insane) invasion of its armed forces into its own territory against the rebels. 

After the army was defeated in the summer of 2014, a reorganization was undertaken with transformations both at the front and in the rear. With new equipment came guidelines for the use of force , however Kiev rejected the American system of separate tactical groups, going back to permanent brigades and corps.  

The locations of new brigades has nothing to do with the war in the Donbass.  Four fifths of Ukraine’s army are poised for action against Russia and Transdniestria and Belorussia. 

The force will be practically doubled, howitzer artillery more than twice. However, the Ukrainian Army is probably not ready to go to war right now, taking into consideration the 3-5 years plan. 

But the reason why Washington has come to “love” the Minsk agreements, making a deal with Moscow to gain a timeout for Kiev, is that, according to the master plan, the army will have to strike one very powerful blow against the Armed Forces of Novorossiya, or draw the Russian Federation into the war.  But the Ukrainian Army could only achieve this by bringing them into the Donbass in a win for the US that would eliminate Ukraine as we know it.

Source: Polit Russia
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