- Strelkov has excellent information about the situation on the ground
- Kiev is massing troops and equipment with clearly offensive characteristics
- Attack should come before Fall cold season
- Ideal time to attack would be while Putin is in New York
This article originally appeared at Fort Russ
Currently the Ukrainian army is almost finished concentrating forces for the planned offensive.
At the sites selected for the direction of the main strike (to the south of Donetsk), their superiority over the opposing units of NAF is estimated as 5-fold.
Hidden behind a deeply layered system of defence, UAFformation has a distinct offensive configuration.
At the front, exploration of the positions of LDPR army is actively underway. Moreover, it is conducted by professional scout groups (presumably — PMCs). The number of drones and tools of electronic warfare involved by the ukro-military is impressive. At the front, considerable reserves of ammunition for all types of weapons are concentrated.
Available UAF forces are enough to defeat the opposing "corps of the people's militia" in a week or two, and already in the first day of the attack profound breakthroughs with access to rear communications can be achieved.
The offensive can have a "general" character (aimed at accessing the border with Russia throughout its entire length and subsequent total destruction of the republics), and limited, whose goal may be the seizure of the southern part of DPR and vital infrastructure, without which even a partial economic autonomy of Donbass will be impossible.
A full-scale assault should be expected before the muddy fall season and, thus, UAF has no more than a month and a half left.
And taking into account the need not only to begin, but to complete the main operation before the onset of autumn rasputitsa [muddy season - rus.], the start date is limited by the range of September 20-25. If the offensive will not begin in the specified period, with high probability it will be possible to predict the freezing of the existing status quo before the onset of winter frost.
However, the postponement of the operation is possible, but unlikely, as the deteriorating economic and political situation of the Kiev junta does not guarantee the opportunity to gather an equally powerful group to attack six months later.
The most suitable time for attack (putting yourself in the enemy's shoes) appears to be the time of the visit of Vladimir Putin to New York to the session of the UN General Assembly (20th of September) — this way the effect of massive pressure from the so-called "international community" at the moment of making a strategic decision about the provision of or failure to render military aid to LDPR, or on the extent of the aid, can be achieved.
Let me remind you that the "War of 08.08.08", and the decisive events of the "Revolution of 'Gidnost' " were made at a time when Vladimir Putin was outside of Moscow (in China and at the Sochi Olympics).