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Erdogan's Russia Apology Has Been Anything but Sincere

He's still in bed with al-Qaea and has no intention of severing links

If you read through all the linked material below, you might reach something like the conclusions that I have:

1.  Turkey continues to allow/support re-supply and reinforcement of Nusra/Ahrar al-Sham forces in the Latakia and Aleppo princes of Syria.  These forces continue to play the major role in attempts to block government and YPG interdiction of the Castello Highway into rebel held parts of Aleppo City.  This is presently the only available LOC into rebel territory.  As of the 11th of July the SAA Tiger forces armored brigade has closed from the north to within several hundred meters of the Castello Highway after having taken, lost and re-taken the Mellah farms area.   at the same time the YPG Kurds having re-taken the Sheikh Maqsood neighborhood south of the Castello Road are also close enough to make the road unusable to the rebels through attacks by fire.  The RUAF contributes mightily to this interdiction situation through more or less continuous strkes on the road in its loop from the west through the jaws of the SAA and YPG disturbance of this route into the city.

2.  In response the rebels, principally Nusra Front and other jihadi groups supported by Turkey, the US and Saudi Arabia have been heavily shelling government held parts of the city using weapons and ammunition that continued to be supplied by their foreign sponsors through Turkish border control posts on the Hatay Province/Syria border.  It should be noted that the government held parts of Aleppo City are the place where the great majority of Syrian civilians live.

3.  Additionally, the variegated rebel groups are counter-attacking on the ground wherever they can engage.  They are attacking the Tiger Forces brigade from the NW seeking to threaten the rear line of communications of the brigade enough to force another withdrawal from the high ground overlooking the Castello Highway.  This worked once a few days ago and the brigade had to fight to re-take the lost ground, losing men and equipment in the process.  At the same time rebel forces are attacking to the NW and SW from WITHIN the rebel held parts of the city with the evident objective of opening a new LOC to their friends outside the government area of Aleppo City by breaking out of what is now an encirclement.

4.  If the rebels within the encirclement cannot break out somewhere or re-open the Castello Road as an LOC to the inner city they are certainly going to lose their foothold in the city .  It will be just a matter of time.

5.  At Manbij east of Aleppo, the SDF/YPG Kurd/Arab alliance have so far been unable to capture the city.  This, despite heavy US air support and the  mentorship of US SF.  This not a good sign.  Here as in the defeat of the SAA attempt to advance to Tabqa air base, a shortage of means on the ground is evident.

6.  While all this is occurring the MSM in the US is trying to develop the idea that Erdogan has made a serious effort to regain Russian favor by distancing Turkey from the non-IS jihadi AQ allied rebel forces in Lattakia and Aleppo provinces.  These are the same jihadi forces that Turkey has continued to help with massive assistance to the present day.  At the same time, apparently to "sweeten" the appeal of Turkey's "offer" to the Russians, the US has supposedly made an offer of joint operations in Syria to the Russians, perhaps from Incerlik Air Base at Adana in Turkey.  I agree with those like "b" who say that this is yet another trick like the late un-lamented cessation of hostilities. 

7.  Erdogan is trying to win the day through chicanery.  The Russians would be well advised to demand several "pounds of flesh" at each stage of a rapprochement. with Turkey.

8.  At the tactical level, it would seem logical that ground mounted surveillance radar placed on the heights overlooking the Castello Road would enable SAA artillery fire and Russian air in keeping the road closed to rebel traffic.  the road can easily be cratered by Russian air and all bridges or overpasses wrecked and collapsed.  In that situation, repair work should be interesting and challenging.  pl

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