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Did 200 Russian Servicemen Die in Russian Intervention in East Ukraine?

We haven't seen any evidence of a direct Russian military intervention in Donbass in 2014 that would convince us, but a few commentators whom we respect, Paul Robinson, Ivan Katchanovski, and now Anatoly Karlin, believe so or allow the possibility, so we'll keep an open mind for a while longer

This is one possible interpretation of a recent report in Vedomosti, which analyzed a Russian Ministry of Defense tender for military insurance for the years 2018-2019.

Included within was detailed Russian military mortality statistics for the 2012-2016 period, lifting the lid on a veil of secrecy on such matters since 2010.

2005 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Deaths 1,170 630 596 790 626 393
Serious Injuries 2,876 2,525 2,895 1,926 1,736
Light Injuries 4,937 4,272 4,409 4,406 2,664

The 1,170 figure from 2005 is also taken from the Vedomosti report. At that time, the Russian military numbered around 1.2 million; Chechnya by then only accounted for 100 of them. As of 2016, the Russian military numbers one million. Consequently, non-combat mortality in the Russian military has approximately halved in the past decade.

The most notable immediate observation is that military deaths leaped up from an average of around 600 in 2012, 2013, and 2015 to around 800 in 2014, before falling to 393 in 2016. There was also an uptick in cases of serious injuries; perhaps 600 more than there “should have been,” assuming a steady downwards trend from 2012 to 2015.

The Conflict Intelligence Team deduced analogous figures from a more complicated analysis based on death to injury ratios.

This, of course, coincided with the one time in which the Russian Army got directly involved at the Battle of Ilovaysk in late August, which foiled the Ukrainian offensive to retake the fledgling LDNR.

As is often the case reality is somewhere in between official Kremlin propaganda (which denies the Russian military was involved at all), Western MSM propaganda (2,000 deaths), and Ukrainian propaganda (several divisions’ worth of Buryats and Pskov paratroopers).

Source: The Unz Review

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