Support Russia Insider - Go Ad-Free!

ANALYSIS: Forcing Poroshenko to Negotiate


This post first appeared on Russia Insider

German Chancellor Angela Merkel appears to have had enough.

As leader of Europe’s largest economy and the EU’s foreign policy heavy hitter,  Merkel visits Kiev this weekend with a stern message: there must be a  negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine.

The EU was quick to recognize the Kiev regime hours after the armed coup in February.  Since then, Brussels has dithered as the security, economic and humanitarian situation in Ukraine spirals downward. Add to this the trading of sanctions with Russia.

Any deal will include the biggest “known unknown” of all – can Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko be  trusted to keep his end of any agreement?   

Also this weekend it is possible Poroshenko may meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Minsk.    So, what could be on the table?   

  • Recognizing the return of Crimea to Russia   
  • Some kind of official pledge from the Kremlin withdrawing its support of the anti-Kiev resistance in eastern Ukraine   
  • A long-term natural gas deal guaranteeing energy supplies from Russia will be transported via Ukraine to Europe  
  • Ukraine will continue down the path of EU integration   
  • Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO   

Is any of the above doable? For the EU and Russia the answer is probably yes (with a lot of caveats).

The wildcards are Poroshenko, the Kiev regime in general, and military and security forces assaulting the east of the country.  It is entirely unclear whether they are now working in tandem or could do so in the future. Time is running out for all of them.   

Contrary western media reports, Russia is not looking for a  way out of the Ukraine crisis.  The Kremlin has been expecting this self-induced fiasco to unravel from the start and warned of dire consequences when up-ending Ukraine’s fragile economic and ethnic patchwork.  

The latest military setbacks for Kiev only strengthen Moscow’s hand.  Poroshenko has a weaker negotiating position now than he had before starting the war, which surprises no one familiar with Ukraine.

Interestingly, the U.S. State Department is remarkably silent surrounding Merkel’s Kiev visit.

Support Russia Insider - Go Ad-Free!

This post first appeared on Russia Insider

Anyone is free to republish, copy, and redistribute the text in this content (but not the images or videos) in any medium or format, with the right to remix, transform, and build upon it, even commercially, as long as they provide a backlink and credit to Russia Insider. It is not necessary to notify Russia Insider. Licensed Creative Commons

Our commenting rules: You can say pretty much anything except the F word. If you are abusive, obscene, or a paid troll, we will ban you. Full statement from the Editor, Charles Bausman.

Add new comment