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The Accomplices Have Their Backs Against the Wall

NATO knows its Turkish member's ties to ISIS will be revealed if Russia succeeds in Syria

This post first appeared on Russia Insider

Originally Appeared at German Economic News; Translated by Susan Neumann

NATO is extremely nervous, because it knows that the truth about the relationship of NATO-member Turkey to the Islamist terror group (IS) will come to light if there is a Russian victory in Syria. If the refugees are able to return, Erdogan won’t have them as a pawn to extort money [from the EU]. It’s clear who’s interested in an escalation of the conflict.

The reaction of the Western alliance on the shooting down of a Russian bomber show that NATO is very nervous. It’s on the verge of losing control of Russia in Syria. The great Turkish ride out, which was most likely planned by the secret services, looks more like a desperate symbolic act than a carefully considered commando operation. The Russian Ambassador to NATO, Alexander Grushko, called it shadow theatre.

The reason why NATO is looking for shady place to hide is the fact that Putin named those who shot down the Russian aircraft accomplices of the terrorists. Turkey is a NATO country. The alliance is confronted with the official accusation of terrorism for the first time. Until now, NATO has been the only one to slap others with the terrorist label. The real reason for their nervousness is tangibly rooted in the military.

The hopes of NATO and their secret services are being dashed on the rocks. US President Barack Obama has been running a different political course than that which NATO and their secret services would want. Obama wants to get out of the Syria war. He’s admitted that the mission has failed — and the idea of "regime change" has taken a heavy beating, to say the least. Obama has arranged it with Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Russians take over the IS-project. This has been devastatingly humiliating for the neocons, NATO, and the secret services.

After that, Russia began fighting terrorists who were allies of the US military. From the very beginning, Putin has stood in the way of the western military’s desire to cover up their manipulations Syria. The Islamic State and the military advisers of both Turkey and the Pentagon are now facing defeat in Syria.

US President Obama knows this as well. His message to Putin is therefore remarkably diplomatic. After a meeting at the White House with French President Francois Hollande, President Barack Obama said that if Moscow had a "change of strategy," there would be "great potential" for cooperation. "Russia is welcome to be a part of our broad coalition." It's Obama's half-hearted attempt to make it appear to NATO that they can bring Russia under control.

Why indeed, should Russia change its strategy, above all now? The Russians have kept repeating that the reason they’ve involved themselves militarily in Syria is because NATO has failed. One can believe that, because the Russians know that a fight to uncover terrorist cells is anything but easy. In order not to end up like the Americans in no man's land, the Russians have made skillful alliances with Iran, Iraq, and China; and have even allowed Israel to have access to their information.

The military successes of the past few weeks have put the Western mercenary troops in dire straits. Obama’s added invitation for the Russians to join in is the real reason why NATO is so nervous. Obama says Moscow should work in close military cooperation and target their air strikes on the IS rather than the moderate rebels. They should also support political change in Damascus.

Russia has supported the change in Damascus for weeks. Moscow has repeatedly said that it doesn’t insist on Assad being president in the long run. The Russians do say, however, that it must be the decision of the Syrian people. This position is also shared by Iran. Russia has also submitted a transition plan of Syria, post-war. Within 18 months a new constitution could be drafted and new elections could be held. If anybody needed to make a strategic change, it would be the Western alliance. They have presented no political concept other than the battle cry, "Assad must go!"

The main worry of NATO, and Turkey in particular, lies in the risk that a Russian victory could uncover all the goings-on, of how the West and especially the Turkish government cooperated with the terrorists in the region. [If the Russians are victorious,] it will show the refugee debate in a completely different light, and it will become clear how the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cynically abused the refugees as bartering chips for his ambitions. It will also show that Erdogan’s war against the PKK is a completely disproportionate war, one in which the Kurdish civilian population was brutally attacked. One will also recognize that the West only has the Turkish government and Saudi Arabia as its allies, in a region with two Islamist governments.

Erdogan can still blackmail the totally incompetent EU and the German chancellor, who is totally over her head — by demanding billions of euros in protection money for the refugees. If the Russians truly succeed, however, in bringing peace to Syria — and in such a way that a majority of the refugees can return to their homeland — then Erdogan suddenly has a bad poker hand. Turkey is of course totally unsuitable to be included in the EU under Erdogan. Everybody in Brussels knows it. The visa-free travel is also a grotesque idea. Every day there are new incidents of how business can be conducted with fake Turkish passports — especially in Turkey. Then there’s the three billion euros that Erdogan demands from European taxpayers for the refugees. What’s going to happen with the money? Integration of refugees in Turkey? Better accommodation in the camps? No corruption, complete transparency?

This whole outlook makes Erdogan’s government and its intelligence agencies feel justified in shooting down a Russian fighter jet. They need an escalation of the situation, because they have their backs to the wall. That also makes Erdogan unpredictable in this conflict. He has a lot to lose.

For documentation purposes, we’ve published the report by the Germany Press Agency on NATO’s statement about the shoot-down. It proves that military units were not invented to think.

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