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Long-Term Russian Oil and Gas Production Expected to Decline

By 2020 oil production could decline by 2%, by 2035 it could be 10% - Russia Energy Ministry

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MOSCOW, March 17 (TASS) - Russia’s Energy Ministry has predicts a 2% decline in the country’s oil production by 2020 with a risk of a 10% decline by 2035, the Kommersant daily reported on Tuesday.

The natural gas production forecasts have been downgraded due to dwindling prospects for LNG projects, at the same time officials are ready to admit independent producers to exports, maintaining the single sales channel represented by the natural gas monopoly Gazprom, said Kommersant that has received materials on Russia’s draft energy strategy until 2035.

This document was planned to be adopted at the beginning of last year, but it had to be finalised with taking into account the Western sanctions. Now the Energy Ministry that was preparing the draft even in the target scenario expects a decline in oil production in Russia by 2020 by 11 million tons to 514 million tons. Despite the production issues, the Energy Ministry expects by 2025 oil exports to grow by 15-17% because of the curtailment of downstream refining in Russia by 2035.

The forecasted 2035 natural gas production level has been downgraded from 936 billion to 885 billion cubic meters. Along with the forecasted decline in domestic consumption, the LNG production prospects have been cardinally - by 70% - downgraded: if a year ago the production volume by 2035 was projected at 100 million tons, then the current forecast expects only about 60 million tons.


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