The recent Ukraine deal offers some hope but odds are stacked against it
Nikolai Starikov introduced.
Transcript and translation by Kristina Rus of Fort Russ
00:00 - 07:00
First of all I would very much like to hope that peace would finally come to Donbass. This is without a doubt a wish of every patriot of the Russian world, regardless of his citizenship. This is first.
Second, there are great doubts that the Minsk agreement will lead to a peaceful resolution of the issue. Why? Because the United States and the Kiev authorities under their control absolutely do not want this peace.
The incredibly long procedure of negotiations speaks for the great rift in the positions of the parties. In some sense this reminds of the election of a head of Catholic church, the Roman Pope. If you remember, the cardinals are locked up, and are not allowed to leave until the smoke of a certain color comes out of the chimney.
As far as I understand they spent more then 10 hours, these are incredibly long talks. While before that some leaders participated in other talks, so they were already tired. Nevertheless for 10 hours they were battling it out at the negotiation table, this means that no one wanted to make concessions. Didn't want to, but some configuration was drawn. There are certain agreements, I wouldn't want to discuss every point in detail at this time, since the information at the time of this video blog is not complete.
What I would like to say, is that on August 23rd, 1939, USSR signed a peace agreement with Germany. It was a document, it was a diplomatic act, which had prevented a clash between USSR and Germany at that moment. Does it mean that Stalin thought and believed in a lasting peace between Germany and USSR? Of course not. Anyone, who studies history, understands, that Stalin adequately assessed the likelihood of a clash with the Western states on one front and Germany on another. And may be even the worst situation for USSR would be if the strike was carried out from all sides, and the entire West would consolidate against us.
The next pact that confirmed peace between Germany and USSR, was the agreement of the end of September about friendship and borders between USSR and Germany. Again the two states had signed that they will live in peace. In Minsk we saw already a second Minsk agreement. But now it is at a more serious level.
Please note, at the first Minsk agreement the heads of state did not participate. It's a different level. The level today is much higher, which gives some hope that the agreements signed by heads of states will be followed much better, then those which were not followed at all by Kiev, as we have seen. This is second.
The history tells us that even agreements signed by heads of state, may not be followed, and June 22, 1941 - is a tragic page in our history. Therefore the overall assessment is the following - it would be nice if peace was achieved, but we should adequately treat the agreements signed with those states, which in reality need war. We should not be euphoric. We need to carefully follow our interests.
I have a lot of questions. I don't quite understand the situation how a real peace can be achieved, when the Nazi military gang formations, which are called territorial battalions, are not disarmed. I don't understand how a peace will be achieved if they with their tanks and cannons are controlled by God knows whom.
Even the Right Sector has its own military formations. They have to all be disarmed, otherwise there is no guarantee of absence of provocations. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine at least are subordinate to Poroshenko, this whole gang is not controlled by anyone. It listens to someone, but not him. Therefore the issue of their disarmament is a key issue.
And the problem is - how will the Kiev authorities disarm these battalions? If anything they will assemble at the Ministry of Defense, bring out their favorite car tires, light them on fire, break the front doors, and the Ministry of Defense will agree to whatever they ask. How will you disarm them in this situation? And without the disarming it's not possible. So we see a serious dead end, and how to go around it is not clear.
And what I would like to point your attention to, dear colleagues, is how the West exerts pressure on the talks from all sides. I get letters, asking why is Russia participating in these talks, but not USA? Is Russia fighting there? Here I want to ask, is Germany and France fighting there too?
Russia participates in this talks, because it is very interested in a peaceful resolution of this question, first. Secondly, when heads of state are sitting at the table and Kiev refuses to hold talks at the level of the president with the leaders of DPR and LPR, someone has to voice their view point.
Imagine, if there was no Russia at the table. There is Poroshenko, the heads of Germany, France and may be a representative of USA. And what will they decide there? They can make any decisions, but these decisions will have no relation to reality.
Look what clever moves the West made in order to influence the result of talks. There are many publications in Russian media about a pitiful state of the Ukrainian economy. This is true. The gold and currency reserves are gone, Hryvnia is falling, everything is bad. And at this moment, precisely on the day of the talks in Minsk, the head of IMF makes an announcement that Ukraine will get a credit of $15 billion. No sooner no later, just in time for talks. Translating from diplomatic language into Russian it means - Ukraine will have money to wage war. The calculation that the economic situation in Ukraine will worsen so that the war will be impossible - the West says: "this calculation is wrong, we are ready to give Ukraine another credit".
The situation is very difficult. These agreements are a step towards peace, but let's not overestimate it.
Let's see how this will be followed, because there are many questions, especially about the pulling of heavy arms.