Russia Will Win Middle East, While West Goes Soft
The West is now lacking the political and psychological ability to prevail in the clash of civilizations
In Part I of this article written especially for Russia Insider, the Italian industrialist and Honorary member of the Academy of Science of the Institut de France with long experience in the Middle East detailed the spread and growing effectiveness of ISIS, in particular in Europe. In this second part he examines the relative military capabilities of its diverse adversaries.
The war against the Caliphate will be a very long war, and the West - probably with the only exception of the Russian Federation - is bereft of the political and psychological ability - or power - to fight it to win.
The West will die of soft power and of a lot of talk against Islamists convinced of their alleged cultural, religious and military superiority.
The size of the European Armed Forces, considered individually or in a ramshackle “anti-terror coalition", cannot be compared with those of the United States or Russia, after decades of unreasonable reductions in military budgets and public safety, even after the first Al Qaeda attacks.
Quos Deus perdere vult, dementat - Those whom God wants to destroy he first deprives of their minds.
Russia carried out a thorough reform of its Armed Forces after the 2008 war with Georgia, concentrating more on the human factor than on technology, but without neglecting the latter.
So far, according to Russian sources, it has deployed artillery groups and other ground forces as well as S-400 anti-aircraft missile batteries on Syrian territory, over and above the “Buk” anti-aircraft missile systems provided to the Arab Syrian Army.
The S-400 – designated by NATO as "Growler", - intercepts aircraft flying up to 17,000 kilometers per hour, while “Buk", or SAM 17, is a surface-to air missile system (known as "Gainful" by NATO) with radars to detect enemy cruise missiles and strike aircraft.
If you wonder why Russia deploys such an advanced anti-aircraft structure if ISIS has no planes, the answer is that it wants to eventually eliminate Western raids, which are often objectively inconclusive or relatively ineffective due to lack of a target acquisition network.
President Putin needs a victory in Syria mainly to slow the radicalization of the over twenty million Muslim residents and citizens of Russia. If Russian and Central Asian Islam catch fire, Russia can no longer control - militarily or economically - its energy networks towards Europe and the Mediterranean, the central axes of its geo-economy.
Vladimir Putin wants to become the only player in the Syrian crisis because ousting the West from a NATO neighboring country that is pivotal for control over the Mediterranean, will make Russia one of only two players, or even the only real player in the Mare Nostrum, with strategic consequences that are today unimaginable.
Finally, Russian anti-aircraft missile systems are needed to wipe out planes that don’t coordinate with Russia and strengthen military cooperation with the countries that have accepted the Russian air superiority, for example Israel which, for the time being, offsets its eventual de facto breaking of military and strategic relations with the United States as well as mounting anti-Semitism in Europe with improved relations with Russia.
Putin has a hegemonic hold on Iran, Assad’s Syria and the Lebanese Hezbollah, and will be the power broker between the Shi’ite bloc and the West when, as is inevitable, the clash between the Sunnis and the "Party of Ali" strikes a fatal blow to European security. The Russian President wants to definitively push the United States out of the Middle East whether or not the United States maintains its preferential relations with Saudi Arabia.
Finally, within the UN Security Council, Russia will use a hopefully future victory against ISIS as a bargaining chip in the management of the Arctic; the forthcoming militarization of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; the regionalization of NATO eastward and possibly a new military agreement with China, which would make the composition of the UN Security Council completely asymmetrical.
Not to mention the great attraction Russia would hold for a Eurasian peninsula deserted by the United States and with no acceptable defenses in the Southeast.
In that case, the Eurasia myth of the Russian philosopher and strategist, Alexander Dugin, would soon come true.
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